The 2025 SMU Mustangs, fresh off a College Football Playoff berth, have sputtered to a 2-2 start to the season. Hopes for a playoff return have dissipated, and for the first time since Week 4 of the 2024 season, SMU failed to receive any votes in the AP Poll. Bluntly, the team has looked remarkably underwhelming.

Though SMU held its own against Baylor, the Mustangs looked hopelessly outmatched by the high-powered TCU offense, especially in the passing game. Through four games, SMU has allowed just under 365 passing yards per game, ranking 136th nationally. Although the offense is brilliant at times, they still struggle with turnovers and penalties, averaging 1.7 giveaways and 80.5 penalty yards per game – both amongst the worst in the country.

The good news? SMU is 0-0 in ACC play, and with the conference appearing weak so far, a conference championship appearance is not out of the question. If the Mustangs hope to repeat their miracle 2024 playoff run, it will almost undoubtedly require an ACC Championship. Several teams, both inside and out of SMU’s remaining schedule, will make it a treacherous journey.

Championship Contenders

Georgia Tech (2-0 in ACC), Virginia (2-0), Louisville (1-0), Miami (0-0), Florida State (0-1)

Four teams in the ACC currently reside in the AP Poll, and a fifth, Louisville, received 36 votes. Georgia Tech and Virginia, ranked 17th and 24th, respectively, do not play against SMU in 2025. With wins against Clemson and Wake Forest, the rest of Georgia Tech’s conference schedule looks incredibly beatable. A Duke away game on Oct. 18 provides the hardest challenge for the Yellow Jackets. Should Georgia Tech win out in the ACC, only one slot in the ACC Championship would remain open for SMU.

Virginia shocked college football with a 46-38 overtime win over Florida State in Week 5, and has shot into the AP Poll with a 4-1 record. While they don’t face SMU, they do have to play and beat Louisville, North Carolina and Duke to contend for the championship.

No. 3 Miami and Louisville are undoubtedly the hardest opponents left on SMU’s calendar. The Homecoming game against the Hurricanes on Nov. 1 and the matchup with Louisville on Nov. 22 take place far down the road, but SMU needs to win at least one of these games to stand a chance at a championship berth. Both teams are undefeated, but play against one another on Oct. 18.

Florida State, despite its loss to Virginia, remains in contention for the ACC Championship. The No. 18 Seminoles host Miami on Oct. 3 and then travel to Clemson on Nov. 8. SMU would benefit from the Seminoles beating Miami but losing to Clemson, as the more two-loss teams in the conference, the easier it becomes for SMU to lose a game and still make the ACC Championship.

Formidable Opponents

Duke (2-0), California (1-0), Clemson (0-2)

Shockingly, Clemson resides at the bottom of the ACC after starting the season ranked fourth in the country. Though Clemson may not contend for the ACC Championship, SMU should still view the Tigers as a threat. The Mustangs lost narrowly to Clemson last year in the ACC Championship, and now have to play them on the road in Death Valley.

The Mustangs take on California in the season finale on Nov. 29. Cal is a perplexing team; the Golden Bears beat Minnesota handily, but were crushed by San Diego State and narrowly beat Boston College. Furthermore, Cal lost two valuable defensive players to injury for the rest of the season, weakening their overall threat. By the time SMU reaches them, the Golden Bears could slide to “Middle of the Pack” or “Unlikely Contenders.”

Duke, which came closest to spoiling SMU’s undefeated ACC record in 2024, is off to a decent start to 2025, winning its first two ACC games but losing to Illinois and Tulane in non-conference play. SMU doesn’t play Duke, but the Blue Devils do have to play Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Clemson, which should hopefully bode well for the Mustangs.

Middle of the Pack

Syracuse (1-1), NC State (1-2), Virginia Tech (1-0)

SMU opens ACC play against Syracuse. Two weeks ago, Syracuse would’ve been considered “Championship Contenders,” but then quarterback Steve Angeli tore his achilles. Without Angeli, Syracuse lost badly to Duke, and didn’t have the same offensive firepower that led to an upset win over Clemson. The injury may have opened the door for SMU to start ACC play with a favorable matchup at home.

NC State and Virginia Tech will not play SMU in 2025. NC State has played four ACC opponents in 2025, though their 35-31 win against Virginia didn’t count as a conference matchup. Recently, the Wolfpack lost to Virginia Tech 23-21, who own a 2-3 record. NC State has three ranked matchups in a row starting on Nov. 1, and the Hokies play against all four ranked ACC teams in their remaining conference games. Both teams may struggle to compete based on their strength of schedule.

Unlikely Contenders

North Carolina (2-2), Stanford (1-1), Pitt (0-1), Wake Forest (0-2), Boston College (0-2)

SMU plays three teams with little-to-no chances of making the ACC Championship: Stanford, Wake Forest and Boston College. The Mustangs must win all three games. Wake Forest owns the best overall record at 2-2, while Stanford and Boston College stand at 2-3 and 1-3, respectively. Even with the sluggish start to the season, SMU is favored in all three matchups. The Stanford game comes directly after the ACC opener versus Syracuse, while the Wake Forest and Boston College matchups sandwich the Homecoming matchup versus Miami.

Neither North Carolina nor Pitt is expected to shake up the standings in ACC play. UNC lost by 25 points or more to TCU and UCF, only beating much smaller programs in Richmond and Charlotte. Pitt, though not a terrible team, will play Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame in the coming months. The odds of Pitt escaping that stretch undefeated are next to none.

SMU’s Chances

According to Fox Sports, SMU’s odds to win the ACC Championship sit at +1400, good for sixth-best. SMU plays just two of the five teams with better odds- the favorite, University of Miami (-105) and Louisville (+800).

Is an ACC Championship berth a guarantee for the Mustangs? Probably not, but that doesn’t mean the school’s hopes should be entirely dashed. SMU averages nearly 35 points a game, and the defense ranks top-10 nationally in takeaways per game. The Mustangs can afford to lose, at most, one more game- making a win over Clemson and an upset against Miami or Louisville a necessity.