Sunday marks the first race of the 2006 Chase for the NEXTEL Cup, NASCAR’s version of the playoffs. 10 drivers will fight for the chance to be crowned this year’s NEXTEL Cup champion. At the end of last week’s race in Richmond, the points were recalculated so the top 10 drivers are now only five points apart from each other and the best position any other driver can earn in the season standings is 11th. A lot can change during and after each race, and the standings can get shaken up at any moment. Here’s a preview of this year’s chasers:
1. Matt Kenseth, No. 17
Kenseth spent most of the season in the No. 2 position behind Jimmie Johnson, but emerged as the points leader after back-to-back wins at Michigan and Bristol.
His only DNF was at the season opening Daytona 500. With only one other teammate in the Chase, expect his team, Roush Racing, to be able to allocate more resources to helping this 2003 champion win his second Cup trophy.
2. Jimmie Johnson, No. 48
Johnson has had a breakout year in 2006. He started by winning the Daytona 500 and followed that with a win two races later at Las Vegas. Add wins at Talladega and Indianapolis, and it seems only natural that Johnson will win the championship. He is strong at Lowe’s Motor Speedway, and subsequently at its sister tracks in Kansas City, Atlanta and Ft. Worth, all sites for Chase races, and should perform well at the 1.5-mile tracks.
Don’t take Johnson’s win at Talladega last May as an indication that he’ll sweep the track’s races. The track is receiving its first repaving in 26 years, and the new smooth surface is going to be a lot for the drivers to handle.
3. Kevin Harvick, No. 29
Harvick is making his first career appearance in the Chase this year, and is going into this week with a lot of momentum, having won both the Cup and Busch series races in Richmond last week. His Richard Childress Racing team has seen a huge resurgence this season, and he will be competitive in the Chase. Expect Harvick to give his strongest performances at the short tracks at New Hampshire, Delaware and Martinsville. Harvick is a near lock for the Busch Series championship, NASCAR’s version of the minor leagues, and could potentially be lining himself up to be the first driver to win both championships in the same year.
4. Kyle Busch, No. 5
Sophomore slump? Not for Kyle Busch. His single 2006 win at New Hampshire last July will come in handy when the series returns to the track on Sunday. The 21-year-old has shown an increased maturity over the season, if you can excuse his temper tantrum after the accident he was involved in at the Coca-Cola 600, when he threw his head and neck restraint device at Casey Mears. Busch is the defending race winner at Phoenix, but he won’t win the NEXTEL Cup. He will, however, be entertaining to watch because of his no holds barred approach to racing.
5. Denny Hamlin, No. 11
The rookie sensation has taken stock car racing by storm this year, and further solidified his status as a rising star. Sitting fifth in the points entering the Chase locks Hamlin in for the rookie of the year award, and with two wins and three poles, he is definitely the class of the field in the rookie race. With Hamlin’s teammate and reigning 2005 NEXTEL Cup Champion Tony Stewart locked out of the Chase, his Joe Gibbs team can focus a lot of their efforts on Hamlin’s performance.
6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., No. 8
Earnhardt makes a triumphant return to the Chase field this year. While he has only won one race this season, just making the Chase is a huge improvement for NASCAR’s most popular driver. Earnhardt is still not consistent enough to actually win the title, but expect him to perform very well at Talladega, where he has won four times in the past four years.
7. Mark Martin, No. 6
Martin has finished second in the points race four times in his career, but has never taken home the grand prize. He has not won a race in 2006, but he is the defending race winner at Kansas, the third Chase race. Martin claims to be in his last full year of Cup competition, a claim he made in 2005 before returning for one more season, but this could be Roush Racing’s last chance to get their long-time star a championship.
8. Jeff Burton, No. 31
Burton is making his first Chase appearance in 2006. While he has not won a race since 2003, Burton is tied in third place for the most top-10 finishes with 15. Burton’s RCR team, along with teammate Kevin Harvick has seen a resurgence, but he doesn’t have the momentum to finish the Chase first. Burton could be good for a couple of poles at the 1.5-mile tracks, but don’t expect much more than that. If Burton could come off win at least one win in the Chase, he season would be a success. If for some reason he can win it all, it will be interesting to see how the driver of the Cingular-sponsored car will react to winning the NEXTEL Cup.
9. Jeff Gordon, No. 24
Jeff Gordon enters the Chase with more DNFs than any other Chase competitor. Like Dale Jr., he too is making a return to the Chase after missing the cut in 2005. Gordon will continue to be strong at Talladega and Martinsville, but this year he’s no match for Hendrick Motorsports teammates Jimmie Johnson or Kyle Busch. Expect to see Gordon finish in the top 5.
10. Kasey Kahne, No. 9
Kahne leads all Chasers with five wins in 2006, but has been very hit or miss this season. A summer slump left Kahne with as many finishes in the 30s as he has wins. All of Kahne’s 2006 wins come at 1.5- and 2-mile tracks, including Chase tracks in Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte. Kahne enters the Chase with tremendous momentum. He won the race two weeks ago at California and finished third last week in Richmond. Kahne can win the Cup this year, but only if he can get to the front of the standings early and outperform Jimmie Johnson at the 1.5-mile tracks.
So who wins the Cup?
It’s Jimmie Johnson’s championship to lose. All season the No. 48 team has had an incredible knack for taking a bad day and getting a decent finish when the checkers drop. Johnson has never finished worse than fifth in the Cup Series standings, including back-to-back second place finishes in 2003 and 2004. This will be his year to win.
What about the rest of the field?
While 10 drivers will be the highlight of the final races of the season, there will still be 33 other drivers racing for wins, getting ready for the 2007 season and the coveted 11th place finish and its $1 million bonus.
Tony Stewart will dominate the non-Chasers. Not making the Chase has got to have Smoke fuming, and he will take out his aggressions on the track. Expect Roush drivers Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle and Jamie McMurray to perform well, but they will almost certainly be trying new car setups to prepare for the 2007 season. Elliot Sadler, who left Robert Yates Racing to join Evernham Motorsports four races ago, will continue to get his new team on the right track.
This year’s Chase should be a good one. There are plenty of competitive drivers with a fire to win, so anything can happen. This year’s Chase should mimic that of the 2004 season. With half of the field making their Chase debut this year, the pressure to win is intense and fans can expect excellent racing for the next 10 weeks.
