Competition heats up as bowl games draw closer

The initial BCS standings came out this weekend and we learnedfour major things:

1) If USC, Miami, and Oklahoma win out [I’m not betting onit] it will probably be Miami that is on the outside looking in atthe national title game despite their current spot at No. 2.

2) If Auburn finds a way to get through a tough ending schedule[Georgia, at Alabama and the SEC Championship game] they willprobably rise enough in the computers and polls to bump what iscurrently the Top 3. The hope of every playoff advocate is all fourteams running the table, creating intense national pressure oncollege presidents who finally bend and create a playoff system[obviously unlikely but we can dream].

3) Utah sits at No. 7 in the initial ratings, the highest anon-BCS conference team has started in the history of the series.If you are a fan of Utah you have two favorite teams, the Utes andTexas A&M as the best case for the strength of Utah is beingmade by the Aggies who sit at 5-1 after winning at previouslyunbeaten Oklahoma State If you remember the Utes trounced theAggies 41-21 on opening night.

4) Florida State and California should feel very good abouttheir national title chances.

Most fans understood points one through three but number fourwill make people put the paper down. Why in the world would twoone-loss teams feel confident about playing for a nationalchampionship? The answer is in history, remaining schedules of BCSteams, and the high level that Cal and Florida St. continue to playat. Take a look at the BCS Top 10 and the tough remaining gameseach team has left:

1) USC: No. 24 Notre Dame, at UCLA

2) Miami: at N.C. State, at No. 14 Virginia, No. 23 VirginiaTech

3) Oklahoma: at No. 22 Oklahoma St., at No. 17 Texas A&M

4) Auburn: No. 10 Georgia, at Alabama, SEC Title game

5) Florida St.: at Maryland, at N.C. State, No. 20 Florida

6) Wisconsin: Minnesota, at No. 25 Iowa

7) Utah: at San Diego State, at Wyoming, BYU

8) California: No. 21 Arizona State, Stanford, at SouthernMississippi

9) Tennessee: at South Carolina, No. 24 Notre Dame, possible SECTitle game

10) Georgia: Florida in Jacksonville, at No. 4 Auburn, possibleSEC Title game

History tells us that someone from outside the initial BCSstandings Top 3 always plays in the National Title game so at bestonly one out of the current slate of USC, Miami, and Oklahoma seemdestined for the Orange Bowl. With their remaining schedules itseasy seeing Miami or Oklahoma taking a loss as they both play twoTop 25 teams apiece. That means somebody from No. 4 through No. 10is in position to capitalize.

Auburn, although a great team, will probably take a loss withtheir remaining SEC schedule to deal with including games againstat least two ranked teams.

At five sits a rejuvenated Florida St. team due to an injury toChris Rix and the conservative play of back-up Wyatt Sexton. Thisteam is good enough to beat anyone when they don’t beatthemselves and Rix did it better than anyone in the nation. Hesingle handedly lost the Miami game earlier this season with fourturnovers, and lost the respect of his teammates who openlyquestioned Rix on the sidelines. His injury opened the door forSexton, a son of a coach who understands his strengths andweaknesses and doesn’t try to do to much. The running gamehas been spectacular behind the tandem of Lorenzo Booker and LeonWashington, and the defensive has held every team they have playedunder their season average for yards and points. They have a coupleof conference road games against solid opponents but the key willbe the rivalry game with Florida.

I have a feeling Wisconsin at seven will lose. They used smoke,mirrors and a rare Kyle Orton mistake to beat a clearly superiorPurdue team Saturday. One thing that helps the Badger cause is theydon’t play Michigan this season, the other undefeated team inBig 12 conference play. Utah at seven has no chance to play for thenational title if the polls keep leapfrogging them with one lossmajor conference teams. Against BCS-conference opponents thisseason the Utes have won by an average of 37-14 so stop questioningtheir credentials. The Utes expected drop in the computer pollswill be painful, but its due to the fact only one remainingopponent has a winning record. Tennessee and Georgia’sremaining games mean both easily can take a loss with Georgiahaving to beat Florida and Auburn twice just to get back in themix.

This leaves the Cal Bears sitting pretty behind the play oftheir superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Bears scenario for atitle is not that far-fetched as their remaining schedule is toughenough to allow them to jump Utah in front of them while not astough as the rest of final contenders. Obviously the Bears wouldneed five teams to lose which is not guaranteed, but history tellsus that the ‘Noles and the Bears need to play every game asif a chance at a national title is hinging on it, because itprobably is.

Upset Specials:

No. 8 Texas at Texas Tech [AP rank] 6 p.m.

This game scares me for a single reason, Chance Mock might play.I actually thought about ignoring this game because of thepossibility Mock could play because Texas is better with Mock onthe field. With Vince Young in [despite being an athletic freak]opponents can stack eight men in the box against Cedric Bensonbecause of Young’s lack of pure passing skills. This strategyis for good reason as the ballyhooed Young completes only 54.9percent of his passes for 126 yards a game. Young will get thestart, but with his injured chest and lack of productivity look tosee Mock if things get ugly early. If I were a Red Raider fanI’d be happy with Tuesday’s news that Young wouldremain the starter because it gives Tech an advantage at thequarterback spot.

Sonny Cumbie is averaging approximately 1,000 yards a gamepassing and the Red Raiders are averaging about 100 points a homegame. The offense seems unstoppable with even Taurean Hendersonhaving a pair of games of over a hundred yards on the ground,something unthinkable in Mike Leach’s offense. This game justseems to be that game the Longhorns get ambushed by a Red Raiderteam that is waiting to show the nation they are for real.

The Pick: Texas Tech 41-31

Big Game:

No. 13 Michigan at No. 12 Purdue, 2:30 p.m.

The only match-up between ranked teams comes from West Lafayettewhere legions of fans are still stunned by last week’s lossin the final minutes to the Badgers. Kyle Smith dropped aninterception [I hate it when the ball hits me between the numbers]with six minutes left that would have iced the game at 17-7.Instead Wisconsin scored four plays later and the whole nationknows that Kyle Orton’s fumble was scooped up and returnedfor the winning score.

The deal is that Purdue is still the same team everyone lovedtwo weeks ago and they just played a bad six minutes. I like themto come in seeing blood against a Wolverines team that is[surprise!) playing below expectations. Expect the Boilers toroll.

The Pick: Purdue 30-17

Season Record: 10-9, Last week: 1-4, after latecollapses by Louisville and Purdue [both dropped game-icinginterceptions] I wanted to throw up. Picking Arizona State andVirginia just showed that under no circumstances should peopleforget that I’m an idiot. Thanks to A&M I didn’ttake the bagel.