Republican presidential candidate Gov. Mitt Romney speaks during the South Carolina Primary Saturday night in Columbia, S.C. (Associated Press)
Newt Gingrich managed to use the allegations of his second wife to grandstand himself once again into frontrunner status in South Carolina on Saturday, beating the “inevitable” Mitt Romney. As recently as Wednesday, Mitt Romney was expected to run the table in the first three primary contests, having won Iowa, New Hampshire, and leading by double digits in South Carolina.
Then some astounding things happened. In two consecutive debates Romney fumbled a question about releasing his tax returns, making him look like a much less disciplined and prepared candidate than he usually does. Sarah Palin gave a pseudo-endorsement to Gingrich on Tuesday, providing Gingrich with a bit of momentum.
On the day of the second debate, Rick Santorum was officially declared the winner of Iowa’s caucus, and Newt Gingrich was somehow given a gift when his second ex wife and first ex mistress ,Marianne, gave a tell-all interview with ABC.
Gingrich cemented his momentum at the expense of John King in the first five minutes of the debate, using a question about his ex wife’s interview with ABC to levy a strong attack against the liberal mainstream media. Santorum followed with a strong performance and pointed, powerful, and biting criticisms of Romney and Gingrich, and most pundits agree that while Newt won the first five minutes and won all the momentum, Santorum won the debate.
At times, Romney was such a stumbling nonentity that I forgot he was even present at the debate. Romney’s double digit lead over Gingrich in South Carolina disappeared overnight, culminating in a double digit loss to Gingrich, who just enjoyed his first second political “back from the dead” scenario in less than two months.
In short, Romney had such a terrible week that his 20 point lead in Florida is now expected to narrow significantly, and could very well disappear entirely. If Romney does manage to lose Florida, it seems that the rumblings from the establishment of the possibility that another candidate enters the race and forces Romney out, consolidating establishment support behind this new candidate, could come true.
Jeb Bush, who has long been an establishment favorite to throw his hat into the ring, refused to endorse Romney, even as he had spoken positively of him in the past and his father George H. W. Bush endorsed Romney a few weeks ago, possibly positioning himself to enter the race himself in the event of a Romney loss in Florida.
That Romney is a horrible candidate should not come as much of a surprise to the establishment, but for some reason it is. His electoral record over the last 18 years, including primary campaigns, is 14 wins and 21 losses out of 35 contests total. This includes only one general election win for Romney, an incredibly close gubernatorial race in 2002 in which Romney couldn’t even get 50 percent of the vote.
If the establishment were smart, they would put their support behind the very acceptable candidate Rick Santorum, who is quite the establishment candidate, as a former member of Senate GOP leadership, and also has a history of winning competitive races in difficult states for Republicans.
Endorsing a current candidate in the race who has already won an important contest in the 2012 race is also a heck of a lot less risky than bringing a new, untested candidate into the race, and certainly less risky than supporting a narcissistic candidate who has already blown up twice in the last two months, and is entirely likely to blow up again. Rick Santorum is a safe, predictable, and comparably electable candidate in comparison to the other three remaining candidates, and an obvious choice for disaffected establishmentarians.
Tucker is a sophomore majoring in political science
