The state of the world’s oil supply is rapidly declining, and the world economy is not ready for the backlash, according to two speakers at a lecture presented by the SMU Environmental Science Program and the Greater Dallas Planning Council.
Matthew Simmons and James Howard Kunstler were the guest lecturers for the program, which was entitled “The Unfolding Energy Crisis and its Impact on Development Patterns.” It was held at the Wesley Hall at the Highland Park United Methodist Church.
Simmons is the author of “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy,” as well as a variety of reports on the energy industry. He spoke about the state of the world’s oil production and his belief that, without a viable solution to the energy crisis, there will not be effective solutions to other world problems.
“If we cannot solve our energy problems, then forget about potable water and healthcare,” Simmons said.
Simmons, who is chairman of Simmons and Company International, an energy investment banking firm, also discussed the inflation of oil reserve estimates. He said that oil-producing countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, have inflated their estimates of how much oil they can produce in the coming decades in order to ease market concerns on supply as well as to appear to have more oil than their competitors. He also said that corresponding estimates of world oil use are deflated and extremely conservative.
Simmons was adamant that without proper scientific documents and without accurate estimates on oil supply and demand, the public will not fully comprehend the enormity of the ensuing energy crisis.
Kunstler is an urban planning advocate, journalist and author. His most recent book, “The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century,” discusses the need for what he called the “Downscaling of America.” Kunstler is also the author of an ongoing online commentary column entitled “The Clusterfuck Nation Chronicle,” which is available on his personal Web site, www.kunstler.com.
In his part of the lecture, Kunstler was harshly critical of popular energy conserving plans. In a virtual slideshow presentation, Kunstler said that the United States uses approximately seven billion barrels of oil every year. He said the issue was not running out of oil, but rather reaching peak production capacity.
Kunstler also addressed the issue of relations with the major oil-producing countries of the world.
“If we aren’t getting oil from the countries that don’t like us, we won’t be able to run Walt Disney World, the interstate system and Wal-Mart very much longer,” he said.
Kunstler said that the solution to inevitable energy crisis is scaling down and localizing of our communities and agricultural industry.
He said the time of downsizing will be a “period of turbulence and hardship,” but that it will also be “self-organizing and emerging.”
Kunstler’s main criticism was what he called the “Jiminy Cricket Syndrome,” that is, the idea that “If you wish upon a star,” the energy problem will be resolved.
One example of this is the idea that new technology will solve energy shortages, but Kunstler said there is little evidence to suggest that technology is at a point where it can make a huge contribution to the problem.
He was also critical of what he called the “Las Vegasization of America,” the idea that one can get something for nothing. He called it a “childish idea,” using the example of hydrogen as a renewable energy source. One of his slides had the title, “There will not be a hydrogen economy.”
Kunstler said that cities will have to get smaller and that communities will have to be more self-sufficient and rely less on big chain stores like Wal-Mart and Target. He said that suburban land will need to be used for agricultural uses, and that there will be a rise in the small, privately-owned shops.
The first step to improving and downscaling America is to improve the countries railroad system, he said. Kunstler said it was a goal that is reasonable and a great place to start. He said that a greater use of trains to transport goods would be an excellent way to start conserving.
After both men spoke, they fielded questions from the audience together. They answered questions about the effectiveness of biomass as a fuel alternative, as well as the inadequacies of hydrogen as a fuel source.
“The problem with hydrogen is that it is not a primary or a secondary source of energy,” Simmons said. He continued to say that the use of hydrogen requires converting it to electricity, and that it was not efficient of effective. Both men also said that it would require an enormous infrastructure that would be too hard to build in America.
Kunstler said that it was “unfortunate” that the promise of hydrogen as a fuel source “gives false hope that this problem is easy to overcome.”
Neil Dahl of Arlington is in the convenience store industry and attended the session. He said that both speakers had an interesting perspective on the world, and if Kunstler’s predictions about the downsizing of cities becomes a reality, “it actually could possibly benefit” his industry.
Dahl echoed the speaker’s sentiment that the United States has an addiction to oil.
“We’ve learned from the gas lines in the ’70s and this summer’s hurricanes, it’s pretty obvious how dependent the U.S. is on gas and oil,” he said.
David Murphy traveled to Dallas from Austin specifically to hear this lecture.
“I have read their [the speakers] books and I was interested in seeing a large group of people come together to discuss this issue,” Murphy said. He also said that he thought Americans don’t want to face the reality of energy shortages.
“When Jimmy Carter was president, he tried to convince Americans that there would be an energy crisis in the future and voters didn’t reelect him. Now politicians are too scared to address it,” he said.
