This upcoming Tuesday, March 1, is a big one for the Presidential Primary race. Dubbed “Super Tuesday,” there will be primaries held in 12 states which will prove monumental for the race. Here is everything you need to know about Super Tuesday and what it means for this election season.
Go and vote!
Perhaps the most important thing about Super Tuesday is that Texas is one of the states holding its primary. While it is already too late if you have not registered to vote, if you are eligible to vote anywhere — whether by absentee ballot or here in Highland Park — then you should do so.
Voting is one of our great rights and our highest civil responsibility, it also is the way to get your voice heard. So read some Campus Weekly articles about Trump, Cruz, Hillary, or Sanders to brush up and then go out and vote! You can always Google it too… just be informed!
If you can at all, you should hit the polls along with the citizens of the other 11 states and make your mark on Super Tuesday.
The current state of the race
On the Democratic side, the race is somewhat lopsided when considering the Democratic system having superdelegates. Superdelegates are party insiders and elites who get to pledge their support for a candidate, regardless of how the rest of their state votes.
The first three primaries have been close contests in terms of the popular vote (with the exception of Bernie Sanders’ New Hampshire blowout). However, Clinton is winning the SuperDelegate race in a landslide.
Clinton counts 452 superdelegates to Sanders’ 20, giving her the lead in the race at 503 to 71. Even though there have only been a few primaries before Super Tuesday, Clinton already holds a commanding lead due to her position inside of the Democratic Party.
But with 1,015 delegates at stake on Tuesday for the Democratic side, if Sanders has a commanding performance, he could bring it back to much closer race.
The Republicans, on the other hand, have no such superdelegate system to complicate things. However, they do have a large field who are around to split votes and delegates to complicate things. Donald Trump is in the lead with 81 delegates while Cruz and Rubio are tied for second with 17 delegates each. The rest of the delegates are split between the remainder of the pack, with no one having more than six delegates to their name.
Trump already seems to have a commanding lead in delegates and in the polling, but Super Tuesday could either serve to confirm or overturn this notion. There are 661 delegates at stake on Tuesday which can serve to mix up the race or give Trump a commanding lead.
What do the polls say?
With so many primaries happening, it is hard to interpret and summarize all of the poll data. Real Clear Politics has a number of polls listed online, and the averages span the board. Overall, it seems as if Trump will come out leading — he is predicted to win when you average the polling number — in most states. Exceptions include Texas, which shows heavy favoritism to Cruz, and Colorado which is surprisingly predicting a win for Ben Carson.
While the polls are not a 100 percent accurate indicator of what will actually happen, it is expected that Trump will do well across the board. If he performs as well as the polls are predicting, then he will continue to build a commanding lead.
On the Democratic side, the prediction is similar with the polls heavily favoring the frontrunner. Clinton is expected to command most of the states or to at least compete closely with Bernie Sanders across the board. If this does indeed happen, then Bernie will be a far cry from overcoming Clinton’s early superdelegate lead.
What is at stake?
Super Tuesday could prove to be a watershed moment for both parties. If both Clinton and Trump perform well, then they would be well on their way to securing the nomination. While it is unlikely that this will be a sure shot, it certainly would make the campaign harder for everyone else in the aftermath of Super Tuesday.
On the Republican side, Tuesday will likely be the reckoning in the Cruz vs. Rubio debate. If one of them severely underperforms, then they will have a hard time of clawing back their way to catch up to Trump. Super Tuesday could be the day in which the Republicans are forced to choose between Rubio and Cruz as the single challenger to Trump.
While Cruz and Rubio seem to be in dire straits on Tuesday, then the rest of the GOP field is feeling the pressure even more so. Barring a breakout performance or some good news from the Super Tuesday polling, then it is likely that more Republican candidates will have to think about calling their campaigns off. Expect at least one announcement on Super Tuesday or shortly after about one of the candidates at the back of the pack calling off their campaign.
Bernie Sanders is looking to fate on the Democratic side. While his defeat will not likely be completed on Super Tuesday, if he does not have an incredible showing, then Clinton’s lead will look even more insurmountable.
So, on both sides, Tuesday stands to be a completely critical day. The aftermath of the polling will likely shake the race on both sides and will rebalance the power –possibly solidifying the eventual choices for the nomination on both sides. The best part is that we here in Texas can effect these results through our votes — so get out there and cast your ballot!
