This year’s Republican Presidential Primary election saw many strong candidates sit out, including Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie and countless others that would have been formidable primary and general election candidates who, for some reason or another, decided not to run for President this year.

Their decisions have lead to a particularly weak field, filled with candidates who are either unpopular, unlikeable, or unelectable. Because of this incredibly weak field, we have seen many candidates who at one point or another were temporary frontrunners. Donald Trump was first, then we saw Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and most recently, Herman Cain. Hypothetical polls saw Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani and Chris Christie all in the front of the pack as well, had they chosen to run.

Mitt Romney has always remained between 22 percent and 25 percent support in national polls, never falling significantly lower or rising significantly higher than that range in the last year. None of the voters that supported Trump, Bachmann, Perry or Cain, have at all considered moving to Romney as their first choice.

So why does this weak field help Speaker Gingrich? I make a few assumptions here, first that Romney will not be able to break his 25 percent ceiling, and second that Herman Cain will not remain the frontrunner by the time the Iowa Caucus rolls around in just under two months, which seems like a safe bet based on the recent accusations.

The central argument against voting for Gingrich, from the time he announced his candidacy onward, was that he had too much personal baggage, and would be unable to win in the general election because of this. He entered the race, typically polling near the top of the field, likely a function of his very high name recognition more than anything else.

Once his campaign got off to a rocky start alienating the base through calling Paul Ryan’s plan to save Medicare Right Wing Social Engineering and later when it was revealed he had a six figure open tab at Tiffany’s, most of his campaign staff quit. His polling dropped off dramatically, from the top of the field to the bottom.

Then Donald Trump ended his charade, Michele Bachmann became the flavor of the month, then Rick Perry stole her support, and after he crashed following some horrid debate performances, Herman Cain became the frontrunner. Predictably, based on his lack of knowledge of the political world, his campaign is faltering following a poor handling of some accusations of sexual harassment.

Assuming that Cain won’t recover from this, and that his support won’t go to Romney, it seems natural that one of the other candidates in the race will get his support. There are only a few candidates left who haven’t been the flavor of the month, these being Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman. Since the competition is for a conservative alternative to Romney, I would not expect Huntsman to be this choice.

Rick Santorum, despite principled debate performances, has shown no upward movement in the polls, and parts of his social conservative views turn off more secular voters, although he could certainly be a contender in Iowa if things go his way.

So this leaves Newt Gingrich. As a result of being exceptionally positive in the debates and focusing on policy rather than attacks, his support in the polls has risen considerably. Why?

Because his baggage no longer outweighs the baggage of his competitors. In this weak field, Gingrich, through his extensive experience and strong convictions, has become a safer choice than Cain, Perry or Bachmann for the conservative forces in the party.

Each of these “flavors of the month” have lasted approximately two months before falling apart. Trump lead during April and May, Bachmann through June and July, Perry in August and September and Cain for October and November. Assuming the next flavor can last about two months, he will be the leading conservative alternative just in time to win the Iowa Caucus, at which point the conservatives will rally around that person as their choice, giving Gingrich enough momentum to win the nomination.

Tucker Keene is a sophomore majoring in political science. He can be reached for comment at [email protected]