In the midst of midterms, basketball tournaments and spring break plans, it’s easy to forget that the Oscars are this Sunday. Nevertheless, Ed Board has dutifully spent hours upon mostly enjoyable hours in various local theaters – and is prepared to offer its predictions. We still want our money back for “Memoirs of a Geisha.”
First, we’d like to say that the pre-show on the red carpet hasn’t been the same since E! let Joan Rivers go. She was a riot – to look at and listen to. Ryan Seacrest just isn’t the same.
As for the actual show – let’s take a look at the contenders in the 78th Annual Academy Awards in the six big categories.
The most wide-open category is for supporting actress. Any of the nominees have a legitimate chance, but it will come down to the two W’s – Weisz and Williams. Michelle Williams’ role in “Brokeback Mountain” could get her a statue if the movie sweeps the awards, but we’re picking Rachel Weisz’s role in “The Constant Gardener.”
The supporting actor race is not as open as you would think, despite all of the star power in the category. We think the race will come down to Paul Giamatti from “Cinderella Man” and George Clooney in “Syriana.” The star wattage of Clooney combined with the message of “Syriana” is too good to pass up for voters – so give the Oscar to Clooney.
The weakest category by far is the best actress race. There are only two contenders – Reese Witherspoon as June Carter Cash and Felicity Huffman’s role in “Transamerica.” While Huffman’s performance generated plenty of buzz, Witherspoon is the one who has cleaned up at the pre-Oscar awards shows. Her victory at the Screen Actor’s Guild awards is assurance enough for us to give the Oscar to Witherspoon.
The best actor category is the strongest category this year. All five performances were outstanding, and could each win if this was another year. They were that good. That said – this race is between Philip Seymour Hoffman from “Capote” and Heath Ledger of “Brokeback Mountain.” If “Brokeback” has swept the awards up to this point, then the statue will go to Ledger. Most likely, however, is Hoffman winning for his haunting portrayal of Truman Capote.
Best director isn’t close. While Steven Spielberg and Clooney are nominated, this award has Ang Lee’s name written all over it. He has shown versatility by previously directing “Sense and Sensibility” and “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.” Now, with “Brokeback Mountain” he has crafted a movie that got people to care about two gay men. Not exactly easy in today’s current culture – so he is due for his first Oscar statue.
About those cowboys – they’re going to ride off with the best picture Oscar. While there has been some clamoring about “Crash,” it’s just white noise. “Brokeback Mountain” is arguably the most important film made this decade. It’s one of those films that will be remembered as a sign of change in culture. And it’s a good film – beautifully shot, with quality performances and a good script. For all those reasons, it will and should be the best picture.
