Kerry nation

The wait is over, before it even began. With the 2002 midterms not yet resolved (one Senate race won’t be decided until Saturday), the 2004 presidential battle has already commenced. It seems these things start earlier and earlier – the era of the perpetual campaign appears to be looming. And as an admitted political junkie, I couldn’t be more ecstatic.

In truth, however, the 2004 presidential contest has been in motion since early this spring, when Vermont Gov. Howard Dean announced his intention to seek the Democratic nod – not that you would be aware of this fact by observing the major media. Dean’s campaign has made few headlines, despite the candidate’s sometimes-controversial opinions.

No, to hear the media tell it, the Democratic race began this past Sunday, when Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry stepped into the ring. An 18-year veteran of the Senate, and decorated Vietnam War hero turned anti-war activist, Kerry’s resumé is long and somewhat exciting, though his campaign, so far, is anything but. Coasting with the prevailing political winds, Kerry is positioning himself as a crusader for security – but not in the “Homeland Security” sense.

To Kerry, security is something like a modern day version of the venerable social safety net. Kerry lists “job security, health security, education security” and other exceedingly domestic issues as being in the core of his “security” campaign. This makes him one of the few politicians on the national scene who is willing to turn his attention from the politically powerful specter of Osama bin Laden in order to address more mundane concerns – an admirable effort, but probably a hard sell.

And his declaration that “on almost every issue. . . I believe there is a better choice” than the positions of President Bush places Kerry amongst the small cadre of Democrats willing to tussle with the popular Texan – a strategy that is perilous but at the same time vaguely courageous.

But for all that bluster, in truth all Kerry has done is file some papers and make a few glib remarks. His campaign exists only as a proposal, and any detailed policy positions are as yet unformed.

While his early entry into the race is a big deal, and promises a more stimulating Democratic contest than 2000’s exchange between somnambulistic former Senator Bill Bradley and then Vice President Al Gore, Kerry’s candidacy has far more weaknesses than it does strengths.

Kerry is a fairly bland speaker, and reeks of the sort of New England haughtiness that doomed the campaign of Michael Dukakis. He’s got $3 million in the bank, but suffers from mediocre name recognition. And what recognition Kerry’s name does have is often confused with former Senator Bob Kerrey, whose own service in Vietnam has, in recent years, proven far less prestigious that was previously thought. Kerrey’s quagmire could cause Kerry headaches. Homonyms can be a pain.

A far more interesting Democratic presidential candidate would be Howard Dean. The Vermont governor has been on the trail since early spring, glad-handing in Iowa, and making frequent visits to neighboring New Hampshire. Dean has been a loud critic of the current White House, calling the Bush tax cut a boondoggle and trying to stir the sort of debate on a national health care system that should have occurred in 1993, but never seemed to emerge.

Perhaps best known for signing the controversial gay civil unions bill that will hopefully serve as a model for the rest of the nation, Dean has shied away from that topic on the national scene, saying such matters should be dealt with state by state.

But if Kerry’s shot at the nomination is long, then Dean’s probably doesn’t even exist. Though he appears to personify the sort of progressivism the Democratic Party claims to represent, Dean clocks in below the margin of error in most of the early tracking polls. Of course, Jimmy Carter was a virtual unknown in 1974, and Bill Clinton’s candidacy seemed like a bad joke in 1991, so it would be premature to count Dean – or Kerry – out at this point.

But Clinton only won in 1992 because the Democratic heavy hitters bowed out, afraid of challenging the immensely popular President George Bush. A repeat of that scenario seems unlikely this time around.

And Jimmy Carter’s surprise emergence in 1976 was due to his slow-and-steady-wins-the-race strategy, which used early wins in small primaries as leverage to grab the top spot at the convention. With the hyper-compressed schedule of the 2004 primary season, such a performance by Dean or Kerry will be next to impossible.

And perhaps most ominously for would-be out-of-the-blue nominees, Al Gore has been making the rounds the past few weeks, promising to end speculation regarding another presidential run early next year.

He’s dropped the weight from his post-defeat binge and finally shaved off that absurd beard. He’s looking like a man who is ready to run for president… again. Which could be bad news for both these outsider candidates, and the Democratic Party itself.

Unless, of course, this version of Al Gore proves to be a hell of a lot better at running a campaign than the ill-fated Al Gore of 2000.