The 2026 Oscars, like many others, feel like there’s no predictable outcome. Anyone who’s been spending the past few weeks tracking and updating their winner forecast understands that they are ready for it all to be thrown out the window.

But like every year, the Oscars have become a time to be disappointed more than validated. The whole ordeal becomes a metaphorical garbage can lit on fire that you can’t help but turn away from.

No shade thrown at the Academy though, because every year I’m still loyally seated and ready to see the drama roll. If you’ve been out of the loop with last year’s films or this past few months’ award season run, here is your chance to get up to date with the movies.

Nominations overview and notable snubs

When the nominations were announced in early January, there were already some notable snubs, or films that were completely left out of this year’s Oscar race.

Big commercial films like “Superman,” critically acclaimed films like “The Life of Chuck” and even “Wicked: For Good” were completely shut out this year, which was quite shocking. Yes, the “Wicked” sequel wasn’t as warmly received, but compared with the first film, which received 10 nominations, it received no nominations at all, even in categories like Best Supporting Actress for Ariana Grande to shine in or Original Song.

“Weapons,” the original horror film by Zach Cregger, received only one nomination, for Best Supporting Actress for Amy Madigan. While it was a small hit and moment in the late summer of 2025, I still expected to get a bit more love for it.

To name a few more, I was hoping “28 Years Later” would receive a Cinematography or Makeup nomination, “Warfare” for Sound or even “Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc” in Animated Feature, just for the fun of it.

The one that hurt me the most was “Marty Supreme” losing a spot in the Best Original Score category. Yes, “Marty Supreme” has nominations in other categories, but realistically, one of its two strongest fronts where this film could’ve won was its score, which is electric and memorable.

As for “No Other Choice,” the South Korean dark comedy thriller, it’s the same as usual, with the Academy not liking Park Chan-wook for some reason. But not even a nomination in an International Feature? Ouch.

“Sinners” chances Pre-BAFTA and rise after

If you are a “serious” award-season fanatic and aware of voting patterns in other Oscar races, you would know that “Sinners” was not in the conversation in January. Blasphemous, you say? Let me explain.

“Sinners“ had two major disadvantages to overcome to reach the frontrunner position: a release early in the year, in April of 2025, which left too much time for voters to move on, as recency bias tends to be a factor (just ask “Dune: Part Two”), and the second disadvantage was that it’s a genre film (horror).

When the Golden Globes, an early soft-precursor to the Oscars, aired in January, “Sinners” won only two awards that night, Ludwig Göransson for Best Original Score, because let’s be honest, that’s a given. And then “Sinners” took home what’s been known as the “pity prize” with the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement.

This relatively new accolade marks a film’s commercial success and its impact on the industry, with previous winners being “Wicked” and “Barbie.” And, like those previous films, “Sinners” was essentially awarded the “not-winning-Best Picture prize,” as even “Sinners“ fans were quickly picking up on the foreboding omens. The award just isn’t taken as seriously. It is practically a popularity prize, and it was especially made clear when “Sinners“ still lost its Best Motion Picture – Drama category to “Hamnet.”

However, the British Academy Film Awards might’ve marked a turning point for “Sinners“ in this award season. Again, even though it had an impressive 13 nominations at this award ceremony, the odds were still stacked against “Sinners.“

Nonetheless, it got a surprising win for Wunmi Mosaku, another for Göransson in Best Original Music, and a historic win for Ryan Coogler in Best Original Screenplay, making him the first Black winner in that category.

The night, however, took a turn with an unfortunate controversy that overshadowed “Sinners“‘ success, as Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo stood onstage to present another category. An audience member with Tourette’s syndrome, John Davidson, on whom the film “I Swear” was based, involuntarily shouted the N-word. The ugly moment, broadcast live without immediate editing, sparked immediate outrage.

Without getting into the online civil war that ensued, with hot takes thrown left and right, the moment was awful and mishandled by the BBC. The controversy, however, was ironically tied to the film’s own themes of racism and historical trauma, which rallied a lot of support afterwards.

If you ask me, the industry conversation around “Sinners” changed after that night. From fighting recency bias and genre prejudice, it has now gained a surge of sympathetic buzz and solidarity. This surge was solidified by Jordan’s win for Best Actor at the Actor Awards,formerly the Screen Actors Guild Awards, another precursor to the main awards ceremony.

I’d like to be in a world where I’d know for a fact the success and accolades that “Sinners“ receive are from its own merit, but for better or worse, “Sinners”’ odds seem to be in its favor and ready to shake things up with its many nominations on Oscar night.

Timothee Chalamet’s ballet/opera controversy

If one debacle wasn’t enough, Timothee Chalamet’s chances for Best Actor in a Leading Role are now on thin ice after a viral clip from a conversation with Matthew McConaughey in Austin for Variety and CNN.

When discussing advocating for one’s own projects and efforts to keep movie theaters alive, Chalamet noted wanting to be “in the middle” of those aspects, without having to sell yourself to get an audience to watch something constantly.

That’s when Chalamet said, “I don’t want to be working in ballet or opera, or things where it’s like, ‘Hey, keep this thing alive,’ even though no one cares about this anymore.” He quickly added, “All respect to all the ballet and opera people out there,” with a self-deprecating joke about losing viewership.

That line and clip went viral, prompting backlash from the performing arts world, including organizations like the Met Opera and the Royal Ballet, and stars like Jamie Lee Curtis, who reposted a video on her Instagram story that criticized him. Misty Copeland, a renowned ballet dancer, called out Chalamet’s comment and said he “wouldn’t be an actor and have the opportunities he has as a movie star if it weren’t for opera and ballet and their relevance.”

My two cents on the matter? It’s hilarious that this has been the biggest controversy to my memory that Chalamet has had. While ballet and opera are crucial foundations of the entertainment world, it’s unrealistic to pretend they aren’t undervalued, overlooked, inaccessible and less favored than other entertainment sectors.

While Chalamet might not be as favored or well-regarded as before, the Academy voting closed on March 5, and the backlash over the clip peaked shortly after. So it’s safe to say that any sway or changes from this will leave Chalamet’s chances unaffected by this specific “controversy.”

Best Picture predictors

Now for the big question: Who’s going to win Best Picture, and how will we know as the ceremony commences? The answer conveniently lies within two factors: the Best Supporting Actress/Actor categories and whoever wins Best Film Editing.

I hate to break it to you, but “F1,” “Frankenstein” and “Marty Supreme” aren’t winning Best Picture. None of them have won any precursor awards in similar categories, nor have they had the legs in other precursor award categories to support their standing. But “Frankenstein” does have promise with locked-in wins in Production Design and Makeup, and “F1” has a chance to win Best Sound and maybe even Visual Effects.

As for not winning Best Picture, the same goes for other critically acclaimed films that are still outliers, like “Bugonia” and “The Secret Agent.” “Hamnet,” “Sentimental Value” and “Train Dreams” have more promise than the others, but it looks like it’s a neck-and-neck race between “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.”

The odds of “Sinners” sweeping are just about as high as it getting shut out, so what it’ll need is momentum. With Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo in their respective actress/actor categories, kicking off the ceremony and having won separate precursor awards for their roles, they have a shot at taking home an Oscar. And if just one of them wins, it’ll tell us if the Academy is feeling like it’s a “Sinners” night.

The award for Best Film Editing is perhaps the most reliable predictor of Best Picture. Only about one-third of Best Picture winners did not win Film Editing, meaning that if you want to be a Best Picture-winning movie, you’re going to want to secure the editing award first.

It’s not a surefire predictor, but the last three films have followed this pattern: “Anora,” “Oppenheimer” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

The film with the most promise to win this is “One Battle After Another” by Paul Thomas Anderson (PTA). It’s won the most precursor awards in this category and is favored by Academy voters this time, who love a new PTA classic to add to their favorites— “There Will Be Blood” and “The Master” to name a few. This might also be the year where the Academy gives PTA his due in the best director category as well, so this trajectory is also as plausible as a “Sinners” sweep.

Safe to say, this has been a wreck of an awards season, and as usual, I wish we were in better circumstances, but here we are. I’d love for “Sinners” to win, because of how much that film impacted me, and its presentation in IMAX 70mm will stay with me forever, but I’d be perfectly fine with “One Battle After Another” taking it home. Both are very deserving of the award and are a testament to filmmaking.