In this segment of the DC election coverage, SMU Journalism students share their perspectives on the election and its significance to them based on the guiding question: What have polls meant to you in this election? Have they made an impact on your thinking? And how do you think they have been presented in the media?

Karrie Kirschenmann: Wait? Polls? You mean there has been a way to predict the outcome of the election this whole time? Oh, that’s right. There is literally no way to do that during this election.

I think during this election cycle, more so than any other election cycle, voters have relied the least on the polls than they ever have before. I was actually speaking to someone today about this and she said that this election is said to be the one that proves Americans have lost their faith in the polls. Now the polls seem to serve more as a fun past-time during the election cycle than a device to calm our nerves. Have you been checking the polls, Will?

Will Kavy: Yeah. Polls this cycle have mostly served to make me giggle. When they all say ‘tossup,’ it doesn’t feel like they mean much. So, I’d look at them every morning and nervously laugh, and then I’d tell myself that this year’s must favor the opposition.

But I wouldn’t say I lost my faith in them. I mean, it’s 8:12 p.m. on election night, and it’s so neck-and-neck that I’m starting to sweat. I think the polls were right on the money. They just still didn’t tell us much… because of margins of error, or whatever. I got a C+ in statistics, so they don’t usually mean much to me anyways.

Kirschenmann: At this point in the night, the red states’ results are what I am clinging to for solace in this whirlwind of a race. And I guess you are right to say the polls were right on the money, projecting that it would be neck-and-neck. Maybe the fact that fewer Americans found themselves checking the polls during this election cycle was more of a cultural phenomenon than a sign of less voter involvement in the election process. Why do you think some voters have steered clear from checking the polls and have just waited to see how tonight turns out?

Kavy: The polls weren’t very accurate in 2016 or in 2020, and they messed up in opposite directions each year. This year seems closer to reality, but it’s still too early to tell. Maybe the pollsters have finally found the Goldilocks zone in post-social-media American politics. Or maybe the American people have become fundamentally less predictable.

Libby Dorin: Polls are like family: They’re crazy, but you can’t live without them. The polls have been all over the map this election cycle. Thing is, it’s difficult to live without them.

This election cycle, political junkies (like me) like to watch the polls. If I’m honest, the question is, why? On some days, the polls are data for the intellectual exercise of analyzing the state of the election, both for the presidency and for congressional races. On other days, they are a tool to help me root for my team. As if I’m watching the score of a football game.

Political analysts call this “confirmation bias.” We pay attention to those which confirm our opinions and ignore data that conflict with them. On balance, I think most people look at the polls like I do: At times, for honest data; at others, to cheer on a team.

Ironically, on Election Night 2024, it seems as if most of the polls were correct. At least the honest ones. The honest polls told us this was going to be a close race. And, tonight, that is exactly what we have. The race could cut in any direction.

So, for now, I’ll look back at the polls this election season not only as one of my addictions but also as what they should be: an honest reflection of the American republic. That’s the way it should be.

Olivia Jones: I also would agree that this year the polls, or at least the ones presented in the mainstream media, have been relatively accurate given the results thus far. The race could go either way, and that is what the polls projected.

So, I hope our recollection of polling in 2024 won’t be too negative. Instead, as Libby said, it is an honest reflection of the American republic, and an addictive source for us political junkies during election season.

The recent Iowa poll came as a shock to many with Harris leading over Trump. It also highlighted the essential voting block needed for Harris’s success: women. The gender gap in Iowa is substantial and it could be an indicator of how men and women across the country are voting in this election.

The polls may not always be completely accurate or trusted, but they can be valuable indicators of voter demographics and new patterns within the American electorate.

Zoe Cohen: I agree with your point that the polls in 2016 were off, and many people were shocked by Trump’s win, even though the polls showed Clinton ahead. In 2024, the tight races and lack of clear leads in key states make it difficult to predict what will happen.

Focusing too much on swing states, as we see frequently in the media, might cause us to overlook surprises elsewhere. The recent Iowa poll, where Harris led Trump, caught people’s attention, especially since the rising influence of women voters was highlighted. While polls can be misleading at times, I think they still offer useful insights into shifting demographics and how certain groups might be positioning in this election.

Also, watching the polls during an election allows us to stay engaged while we wait for the final outcome. Once our vote is cast, we’re essentially sitting back and observing, and the polls provide a snapshot of public opinion, showing where the candidates stand at any given moment.

Dorin: I agree. Polls definitely keep us engaged throughout the election process. I think media outlets focus on key numbers, like a candidate’s lead or changes in support, because they provide a sense of momentum or highlight shifts in the political landscape.

Swing states also get a lot of focus because they can often be deciding factors in tight races. At the same time, polls can sometimes oversimplify the complexity of voter sentiments, so it is essential to approach them with a critical eye.