These are unprecedented times for not only SMU but also the entirety of college football. SMU ranked No. 8 in the country in the latest version of the College Football Playoff committee’s rankings on Tuesday night. This ranking put SMU in the projected playoff but that’s not telling the full story.
As the teams around SMU (No. 11 Alabama, No. 9 Indiana, No. 7 Tennessee, No. 6 Ohio State) sit around, waiting to hear their name called on the CFP selection show Sunday, the Mustangs still don’t feel certain they have secured their spot in the College Football Playoff. SMU needs to take down the Clemson Tigers to feel certain they get what they deserve: a shot at the National Championship.
SMU currently sits as a 2.5 point favorite to beat Clemson on Saturday night in Charlotte. Clemson comes to the Queen City after a draining 17-14 loss to rivals, South Carolina. When Clemson lost that game in Death Valley, they likely thought their shot at making the CFP was gone. After all, they relied on Miami to lose against Syracuse. It was out of their hands. When Miami jumped out to a 21-0 lead over Syracuse early in the second quarter, it seemed all hope was lost for the Tigers. However, in the blink of an eye, Syracuse was right back in the game. By the end of the third quarter, Syracuse led 35-28, and ultimately Syracuse upset the Hurricanes 42-38, sending the Clemson Tigers to the ACC Championship.
After the game, Syracuse head coach, Fran Brown, told Clemson fans, “I got you in, baby.” He’s right, and now Clemson hopes to prove they deserve to be in this game in the first place. But Dabo Swinney and his Tigers are no strangers to the ACC Championship game.
After losing the ACC Championship in his first year as Clemson’s head coach in 2009, Dabo Swinney is 8-0 in this game. While Clemson has won the ACC Championship more than any other team in the conference, the Mustangs find themselves in the championship for the first time in their first year in the ACC. Not only did the Mustangs come into the ACC and make the title game, but they did it emphatically. SMU is one of only two teams in the power-four conferences to go undefeated in conference play (along with Oregon, the No. 1 team in the country).
While Clemson stumbles into the conference championship thanks to Syracuse, the Mustangs soar into it red-hot. The equation seems simple on one hand but it’s incredibly complicated on the other. If SMU beats Clemson, the Mustangs automatically clinch a top-four seed in the CFP and will receive a first-round bye in the bracket. They would likely end up as the No. 3 seed in the tournament. With a Clemson loss, another at-large bid will be given out. With the rankings of teams not playing this week staying the same according to CFP Committee chair Warde Manuel, Alabama would very likely receive the final at-large bid. Because of this, Alabama has taken to social media in support of the Mustangs. The Alabama Director of Player Personnel even joked about loaning five-star quarterback commit, and one-time SMU commit, Keelon Russell, to the Mustangs for this game. If SMU beats Clemson, that makes the CFP committee’s job easy.
A tough decision comes if the Mustangs fail to beat the Tigers. Clemson would receive the guaranteed spot in the CFP as they would be the conference champions. There would be one spot left and two teams in contention: SMU and Alabama. Many people believe the committee would give the edge to Alabama because of their conference affiliation and program prestige. However, giving Alabama the final spot could be setting a damaging precedent for the future of college football. When asked about this scenario on Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman’s On3 podcast, Coach Lashlee responded, “If our team all got COVID today and didn’t play we’re in.” Coach Lashlee means, in this scenario, it would benefit SMU to not play the game at all than to play and risk losing the game, and therefore, their spot in the playoff. This idea has sparked controversy all across college football about the future of conference championship games moving forward. If the CFP committee sets the precedent of a team missing the college football playoff because of losing a conference championship game, then there will be discussion between coaches, teams, and conferences about the value of conference championship games and if they are needed or even beneficial moving forward.
All that to say, if SMU wants to avoid this situation they need to beat Clemson, and here is how they could do it. The SMU defensive line is one of the best pass-rushing fronts in the country. The Clemson offensive line has struggled against teams with talented defensive lines. If the Mustangs can get pressure on Cade Klubnik, then they could force him into mistakes and not allow the Clemson receivers to get downfield for big, chunk plays.
The next key to winning is playing a clean game. Clemson has one of the best turnover margins in the country. That means they are experts at taking the ball away from their opponents and they protect the football when they have it. If SMU can win the turnover battle, that will give them extra possessions to take time off the clock, put more points on the board and take away opportunities for Clemson to score. Playing a clean game also means limiting penalties. On Senior Day, the Mustangs were penalized 17 times for 134 total yards. SMU cannot afford to hurt themselves that much against Clemson and expect to win.
The last key to the game is to start fast. They’ve done it all year. SMU always chooses to get the ball first when possible because they want to be the first team on the scoreboard each week. If the Mustangs can jump out to an early lead, they can force Clemson to be one-dimensional. Clemson will want to establish the run game with their veteran running back Phil Mafah. But, if Clemson is trailing, they may feel forced to pass the ball more with Cade Klubnik, and SMU would be ready for it.
Who knows what’s going to happen in the most anticipated and important game of the weekend? Will the Mustangs claim their first-ever ACC conference championship in their first year in the conference? I guess we’ll have to wait and see. Everyone’s questions will be answered when the game kicks off at 8 p.m. (ET) / 7 p.m. (CT) on ABC.
