After eight years of a Republican administration and a president facing alarmingly low approval ratings, one would think that a Democratic victory in November is all but inevitable. However, as summer approaches, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have viciously attacked each other in an ugly primary battle, which may not be resolved any time soon.
The Democratic National Convention will be held Aug. 25-28 in Denver, and at this rate it does not appear that either candidate will have won enough delegates from the primaries to claim the party’s nomination, and thus the vote of the super delegates may decide John McCain’s opponent. Considering that her husband was a former two-term president, it would seem that the super delegates, which are comprised of many members of the party establishment, would push Hillary Clinton over the top. However, many super delegates have abandoned Hillary for Obama in recent months, and she still trails him in pledged delegates as well. While it is not mathematically impossible, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which Clinton will win the party’s nomination. While she will most likely win Pennsylvania next Tuesday, her victory will not be by enough of a margin to gain any significant traction with Obama in the delegate count. And with the next primary on May 6 in North Carolina, where Obama currently maintains a double-digit lead in the polls, she may actually face an even steeper deficit going into the convention.
For the past several months, Hillary and Obama have done John McCain’s dirty work for him with their vicious attacks on each other, damaging the eventual Democratic nominee’s chances to win the general election. If the race for the Democratic nomination does go to Denver in late August, it is hard to spin that as being positive for the eventual winner. Mike Feldman, a former aide to Vice President Al Gore, was quoted in The New Republic last week saying, “It’s in nobody’s interests in the Democratic Party for that to happen.” Presumably, some of the top Democratic leaders will step in soon and throw their support to the most viable candidate (most likely Obama), urging the uncommitted super delegates to follow suit and unite the party. However, considerable damage may have already been done. Just last week, Barack Obama referenced the “bitterness” of small-town residents in America, a comment which was perceived as being arrogant and condescending to those in the working class. Had Obama not been involved in a tight primary race with Clinton in Pennsylvania, he would have had no reason to make such a comment. Now it appears that the ill-advised remark will stick with him until November.
For Republicans, this scenario could not have played out any better. While Obama and Clinton have assailed each other every night on national newscasts, McCain has been able to largely avoid making attacks on his eventual opponent, which could backfire, and instead has been able to concentrate on fundraising, which is one of his biggest weaknesses. It will be interesting to see just how long Hillary Clinton delays the inevitable at the expense of her own party’s chances in the general election. By prolonging their party’s primary race into the summer months, the only person the Democrats are helping is John McCain.
Joseph Goddard is a junior political science major. He can be reached for comment at [email protected].
