Ron Paul has done well in recent polls, falling just behind “top tier” candidates, and in some cases beating them handily.
Much of this winning streak is attributed to the votes of young America, with whom Paul has polled even higher.
In a Gallup Poll released Aug. 24 Ron Paul ranked third with 13 percent behind Rick Perry’s 29 percent and Mitt Romney’s 17 percent with Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents.
However, in this same poll, Paul came in first among voters 18 to 29 years old with 29 percent, beating out Perry by eight points and Romney by 17 points.
SMU political science professor Matthew Wilson said the difference might be explained because “libertarian tendencies are particularly pronounced among younger voters — especially relatively affluent ones.”
And while Wilson believes Paul will be taken “more seriously this time around,” he doesn’t believe he can pull off the nomination.
“He is too damaged by his past associations with fringe positions, and he is actually the oldest candidate seeking the nomination,” Wilson said. “That said, the political climate has become more accepting of libertarianism generally, and a younger, somewhat more mainstream version of Paul – like, perhaps, his son Rand – might have a future in national politics.”
But even for this campaign, Paul supporters have noticed a large increase in young volunteers.
Jarrod Atkinson, co-organizer of the Dallas County Liberty Campaign — an organization that raises support for Paul, said the “vast majority” of the volunteers in his organization are under 25 years old, and many are starting to take on leadership roles.
President of SMU College Libertarians Sean Linsley, who regularly volunteers for the Paul campaign, said college-aged voters are attracted to Paul because “students haven’t fallen into the propaganda of the times.”
Linsley said student have discovered the benefits of Libertarianism through their own research.
“There’s a reason why people joke about “internet libertarians,” and why such a phrase even exists — because many people discovered the philosophy online,” he said.
Ron Paul’s brand of libertarianism seems to be sticking. According to a Gallup poll released in late spring, 68 percent of Independents feel a third party is needed in American politics – so do 52 percent of Republicans.
SMU senior Charlie McCaslin, former president of College Republicans, isn’t so sure.
“Republicans deserve someone better than a crotchety, bitter congressman who wants to turn back the clock to isolationist foreign policy, anarchic social policy and put the country on a bizarre fiscal trajectory by ending the federal reserve and returning us to the gold standard,” he said.
While he gives credit to Paul for being the first to “understand the potential of libertarian policy with young people who tend to be more socially liberal and fiscally conservative,” he believes that independent conservative students will eventually turn over to support Perry once his campaign picks up steam.
David de la Fuente, an SMU senior and president of Texas College Democrats also believes the Paul campaign will eventually lose popularity.
“Ron Paul finds marginal popularity on campuses because he believes a small government shouldn’t criminalize cannabis use,” he said. “He also believes a small government shouldn’t help students go to college.”
In any case, other 2012 GOP candidates find themselves struggling to get the youth vote while Paul continues to poll high.
Wilson said the reason for the GOP struggle is because the younger generation is much more heavily minority than older ones.
“Given the dramatic disparities in birth rates between whites and minorities, especially Latinos. It is almost inevitable that as long as Republicans struggle with the Latino vote, they will struggle with the youth vote as well,” he said.
Wilson believes that major Republican contenders can make a better reach for the youth vote by emphasizing two things.
First, the “catastrophically high” unemployment levels in the under 25 population, and “the fact that the Obama administration has been unable to do anything about them.”
Second, Wilson said Republicans’ message about entitlement reform has the potential to make waves with the younger generation “since they are the ones who will really be hurt if we don’t fundamentally overhaul the existing unsustainable models.”
Wilson said the trick will be doing this without alienating the over 60 crowd who typically turn out to vote in much greater numbers than younger voters, which results in young voters being overwhelmingly ignored by most candidates.
To vote in a poll on Ron Paul, visit www.politically-inclined.com.