For the last century and a half it is no secret that the West, and most notably the U.S., has been the world’s economic super power. After rapid industrialization in the U.S. in the mid-nineteenth century the U.S. never had to look back, until recently.
It is becoming increasingly evident that the economic epicenter of the world is gradually shifting from the West to the rapidly expanding East. These two regions are going in opposite directions.
China, the most talked about new kid on the block is growing at torrid paces. In the midst of the biggest world recession since World War II, China has managed to still post double digit economic growth.
Multiple factors are at work that are causing such rapid growth in the most populated country in the world, but primarily it is the result of mass urbanization and industrialization, similar to the catapult that made the U.S. the world leader.
China is currently repaying its little foreign debt while Greece is in dire straights and could be at risk of default. Both Europe and the U.S. went on massive debt binges in the nineties when times were good and now are doing the same to try and spend their way out of the recession.
Most Asian countries on the other hand, after being rattled by a currency crisis in the late nineties, are reluctant to take on heavy loads of debt and are currently reaping the benefits of low national debt.
Many economists agree that it is necessary for nations to increase borrowing and spending to turn recessionary economies around. With such large debt loads, however, economists worry about the long-term health of the more developed economies.
Higher levels of debt result in higher borrowing costs that ripple through an economy and slowly choke off growth. As western nations flounder in massive amounts of debt, rapidly industrializing low debt Asian nations will be on the rise.
There is no way to know in 20 years whether the business capital of the world will be New York, London, or Shanghai, but it is a safe bet that the U.S. will not stand alone atop the world economy.
The U.S. will be focused on economic recovery most likely over the next few years, working to recover the 5 million jobs lost in the worst recession since the great depression.
Jobs however, will rapidly be growing in Asia, and the eastern economies are likely to greatly outpace their western counterparts over the next few decades.
The East is rising, and the West may be setting.