Ever since the Tea Party movement arrived on the political scene just over a year ago, conventional wisdom has been that its emergence would be a boon to the Republican Party and its chances for making big gains in the midterm elections later this year.
After all, a grassroots uprising against high taxes, increased government spending, health care reform and Barack Obama (in a recent New York Times poll, 30% of self-identified Tea Party supporters said they believe that Obama was born outside the United States and is thus not qualified to be president), would seem to resonate significantly more with Republicans than with Democrats.
Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts, credited in no small part to the infusion of Tea Party enthusiasm and money into the race, was seen as confirming this perspective. But as the 2010 primary season begins to unfold, many GOP strategists who once hailed the nascent Tea Party movement are becoming increasingly skittish as it now appears that some Tea Party-endorsed candidates, many of whom occupy the extreme right of the political spectrum, pose a serious primary challenge—and in one high-profile contest, a serious general election threat—to mainstream Republican aspirants. This could allow otherwise vulnerable Democrats to survive in November, costing the GOP a chance to win back control of the House of Representatives and make deep inroads into the Democrats’ Senate majority. There are several noteworthy cases in point.
Arizona Senator John McCain, who has never faced serious competition during his 24-year tenure in the Senate, is being challenged in the Republican primary by former congressman J.D. Hayworth.
With considerable Tea Party backing, Hayworth, a talk show host and early Tea Party devotee, has closed to within five percentage points of McCain in a recent Rasmussen Poll. Should Hayworth prevail, his out-of-the mainstream viewpoints could give Democrats their best opportunity in more than two decades to capture an Arizona Senate seat.
The GOP faces a similar dilemma in Kentucky in the race to succeed retiring Republican Senator Jim Bunning. The mainstream Republican candidate, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, is facing a stiff challenge from Rand Paul, son of Tea Party favorite and former presidential candidate Ron Paul. A poll taken last week has Paul up by 15 points. While it appears that either Paul or Grayson would defeat his Democratic opponent in the general election (Obama and health care reform are significantly more unpopular in Kentucky than they are nationwide), Democrats would have a better chance of defeating Paul, whose views echo those of his iconoclastic father, than Grayson.
But nowhere is the Tea Party likely to have a more telling and negative impact on Republican chances this fall than in Nevada, where the GOP is hoping to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Reid is deeply unpopular in his home state and is likely to lose a one-on-one contest with either of the two leading Republican contenders, Susan Lowden and Danny Tarkanian (the coach’s son).
However, Nevada recently became the first state to sanction the Tea Party as a distinct political party. Tea Party leaders in Nevada have announced their intention to nominate Nevada businessman Scott Ashjian as their U.S. Senate standard-bearer to challenge Reid and the Republican primary winner in the November general election. In a three-way contest, recent polls show Reid squeaking through as Ashjian would siphon enough votes from the Republican candidate to cost the GOP a desperately desired victory. Indeed, it appears nearly inconceivable that any Ashjian supporter, absent a Tea Party name on the ballot, would otherwise support Reid as he, the president and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are most representative of the Washington tax-and-spend, big government crowd in protest against which the Tea Party movement was conceived.
These three Senate elections illustrate how Tea Party supporters could upset Republican hopes for a resounding victory in November either by choosing far-right candidates in Republican primaries who would be hard-pressed to prevail in a general election, or, as appears likely in Nevada, nominating candidates to run on a newly-established Tea Party ticket that would split the vote with the Republican candidate and enable the Democrat to emerge victorious.
As of now, there are nearly 50 congressional districts where Tea Party acolytes have thrown their support behind Republican primary hopefuls, many of whom appear to be, to one degree or another, outside the political mainstream. While there likely will be a significant anti-incumbent protest vote this year, Americans have, more often than not and even in times of economic hardship, rejected candidates perceived as being too far left or right. So while there may be an occasional Dennis Kucinich or Ron Paul traipsing through the halls of Congress, the vast majority of those perceived as too radical are soundly rejected by the electorate.
Perhaps even more ominous news for Republican hopes in November is that registration drives are now underway in at least 10 states to follow Nevada’s lead and establish a Tea Party political party. While it is hard to predict how many of those will succeed—Republican leaders in those states are working hard to convince potential supporters not to sign, pointing to the ominous consequences of splitting the conservative, anti-tax-and-spend vote—there are sure to be more than a few Senate and House races where Democratic prospects will be buoyed by too many conservative candidates appealing to the same voters.
The quandary for Republicans appears to be especially acute in the House, where a shift of just a handful of seats could mean the difference between Democrats barely retaining their majority and John Boehner being sworn in next January as the new House speaker.
Who says that friends always have your best interests at heart?
Nathan Mitzner is a junior risk management insurance major. He can be reached for comment at [email protected].
